Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Market: Defense

Nigeria, 80 pages report, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence

Keywords : Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, drivers, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, key challenge, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment

Report ThumbnailNovember-2016
Summary
The Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- The Nigerian defense market, valued at US$1.8 billion in 2016, is expected to see sustained growth over the next five years, to reach US$2.1 billion by 2021. The growing threat from Boko Haram, piracy, oil smuggling in the Gulf of Guinea, and contributions to peacekeeping operations, are expected to drive the country’s military expenditure, registering a growth rate of 3.73% over the forecast period.

- On a cumulative basis, the country is expected to invest US$9.9 billion for defense purposes, of which US$3.4 billion is earmarked for capital expenditure to fund defense procurements. The government’s well-defined military modernization plans to counter influence of narco-terrorists, drug traffickers and weapon traffickers is expected to fuel procurement of defense equipment.

- The MoD is expected to invest in fighters & multi-role aircraft, Infantry fighting vehicles, attack helicopters, and transport aircrafts over the coming years.


Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
- The Nigerian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2017–2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
  • Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2012-2021
  • Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2012-2021
  • Figure 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2021
  • Figure 4:NigerianDefense Budget Split
  • Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion& US$ billion), 2012-2021
  • Table 2: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2021
  • Table 3: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 201
  • 1 Introduction
  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
  • 2 Executive Summary
  • 3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
  • 3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
  • 3.1.1. Nigerian Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.73% during the forecast period
  • 3.1.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure
  • 3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.3% over the forecast period
  • 3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
  • 3.2.1. Allocation for capital expenditure expected to average at 34.4% over the forecast period
  • 3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at 14.71%over the forecast period
  • 3.2.3. Allocation for the army accounts for the majority of the defense budget
  • 3.2.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR 3.65% over the forecast period
  • 3.2.5. Naval expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 3.68% over the forecast period
  • 3.2.6. Expenditure on the air force to increase during the forecast period
  • 3.2.7. Percapita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
  • 3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
  • 3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period
  • 3.3.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering to drive the homeland security market
  • 3.3.3. Nigeria falls under the ‘worst affected category’ by terrorist attack
  • 3.3.4. Nigeria faces high level of threat from foreign as well as domestic terrorist organizations
  • 3.3.5. Nigeria has a terrorism Index Score of 9.2
  • 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
  • 3.4.1. The country’s defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period
  • 3.4.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
  • 3.4.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense
  • 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
  • 3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft
  • 3.5.2. Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV)
  • 3.5.3. Attack Helicopters
  • 3.5.4. Transport Aircrafts
  • 4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
  • 4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports
  • 4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
  • 4.1.3. China, the US, and Italy account for the majority of the country’s defense imports
  • 4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the largest imported military hardware
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
  • 4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry
  • 5 Industry Dynamics
  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
  • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
  • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
  • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
  • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
  • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
  • 6 Market Entry Strategy
  • 6.1. Market Regulation
  • 6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
  • 6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector prohibited by the Nigerian government
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
  • 6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
  • 6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry
  • 6.3.2. Small defense budget discourages major suppliers
  • 6.3.3. Unorganized mismanaged industry jeopardizes development of domestic industry
  • 7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
  • 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
  • 7.2. Key Domestic Companies
  • 7.2.1. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: overview
  • 7.2.2. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: products and services
  • 7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  • 7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: alliances
  • 7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent contract awards
  • 7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: overview
  • 7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: products and services
  • 8 Business Environment and Country Risk
  • 8.1. Economic Performance
  • 8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
  • 8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
  • 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services
  • 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services
  • 8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn)
  • 8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$
  • 8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn)
  • 8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% GDP)
  • 8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
  • 8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
  • 8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
  • 8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP
  • 8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP
  • 8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
  • 8.1.15. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP
  • 8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn)
  • 9 Appendix
  • 9.1. About SDI
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

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